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Data-driven analysis for today's slate

Usage to Fantasy Points

Usage rate vs fantasy points. Bigger bubbles = better value (FP per $1K). Top-right = high-usage stars.

Usage to Fantasy Points

Risk-Reward Frontier

Bottom-right = cash plays, top-left = GPP darts, top-right = slate breakers.

Risk-Reward Frontier

Referee Foul Tendencies

Tonight's crews plotted by foul volume (X) and home/away bias (Y). ▲ = home-favored, ▼ = road-favored.

Referee Foul Chart

Defense vs Position Matchups

Green = soft matchup (target). Red = tough matchup (avoid).

DVP Heatmap

Defense vs Archetype (DVA)

How teams defend playstyles, not positions. DVS multiplier combines archetype stat profile with defensive leaks. Toggle between FP/min differential and DVS multiplier. Hover cells for stat breakdown.

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Team Offensive Scheme Profile

How teams distribute their possessions across play types. Radar shows scheme shape vs league average. Select a team to explore its offensive identity.

Elite (75th+) Above Avg (50th+) Below Avg (25th+) Poor (Below 25th)

Defensive Scheme Vulnerabilities

How teams defend each play type. Green = they shut it down (low PPP allowed). Red = they bleed points. Use this to target opponents' weaknesses.

Weakness (allows more PPP than avg) Strength (allows less PPP than avg) Neutral League Avg Line

Player Archetype Clusters

K-Means clustering groups players by how they actually play. Each dot is a player, positioned by PCA of 19 features including per-100 stats, position splits, shot zones, shot creation, and defensive hustle. Hover for details.

Defensive Shot Charts

Where opponents shoot against each team. Red zones = opponents shoot there MORE than league average. Blue zones = opponents shoot there LESS. Reveals rim protection, perimeter defense, and mid-range tendencies.

Opponents shoot here MORE than avg Opponents shoot here LESS than avg
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Select a team above to see where opponents like to shoot against them.

Top Value Plays

Players outperforming their salary tier. Value vs Tier shows how much better than peers at similar price.

Player Team Salary Proj FP Floor Ceiling FP/$1k vs Tier Tier Archetype
Quenton Jackson IND $4,500 43.3 24.1 72.1 10.97 +215.2% value Playmaker
A.J. Lawson TOR $3,500 22.1 8.2 42.8 6.46 +206.2% punt Combo Guard
Tristan Enaruna CLE $3,500 25.0 12.4 43.9 6.41 +203.8% punt 3-and-D Wing
Tolu Smith DET $3,600 20.7 5.0 44.2 6.27 +197.2% punt Traditional Big
Tre Mann CHA $3,800 22.8 9.9 42.2 6.11 +189.6% punt Playmaker
Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA $4,300 35.4 24.5 51.6 8.71 +150.3% value Traditional Big
PJ Hall CHA $3,700 18.2 5.2 37.7 5.22 +147.4% punt Traditional Big
Mac McClung CHI $3,500 16.8 4.5 35.4 4.94 +134.1% punt Combo Guard
Christian Koloko ATL $3,500 16.1 5.1 32.6 4.87 +130.8% punt Traditional Big
Kevin Huerter DET $3,900 18.5 8.4 33.6 4.68 +121.8% punt Combo Guard

Targeted Stat Plays

Players facing teams that give up extra fantasy points in specific stats. Sorted by FP impact.

Player Pos vs Stat Avg +FP Matchup Note
Scottie Barnes PF CHI Points 19.3 +4.5 CHI gives up +4.5 FP in Points to PFs
Jay Huff C WAS Blocks 1.9 +2.5 WAS gives up +2.5 FP in Blocks to Cs
Micah Potter C WAS Rebounds 4.3 +2.1 WAS gives up +2.1 FP in Rebounds to Cs
Bub Carrington PG IND Points 10.2 +2.0 IND gives up +2.0 FP in Points to PGs
Sandro Mamukelashvili C CHI Points 11.4 +1.8 CHI gives up +1.8 FP in Points to Cs
Immanuel Quickley PG CHI Assists 6.1 +1.7 CHI gives up +1.7 FP in Assists to PGs
Jamal Shead PG CHI Assists 5.4 +1.7 CHI gives up +1.7 FP in Assists to PGs
Dyson Daniels SF PHI Assists 6.2 +1.6 PHI gives up +1.6 FP in Assists to SFs
Andre Drummond C ATL Rebounds 8.6 +1.5 ATL gives up +1.5 FP in Rebounds to Cs
Paul George SF ATL Points 16.0 +1.5 ATL gives up +1.5 FP in Points to SFs
Quentin Grimes SF ATL Points 12.7 +1.5 ATL gives up +1.5 FP in Points to SFs
Jarace Walker SF WAS Points 10.5 +1.4 WAS gives up +1.4 FP in Points to SFs
Justin Champagnie SF IND Rebounds 5.8 +1.3 IND gives up +1.3 FP in Rebounds to SFs
Andrew Nembhard PG WAS Points 17.4 +1.3 WAS gives up +1.3 FP in Points to PGs
Dominick Barlow PF ATL Rebounds 5.0 +1.3 ATL gives up +1.3 FP in Rebounds to PFs
Kyshawn George SF IND Rebounds 5.4 +1.3 IND gives up +1.3 FP in Rebounds to SFs
Ausar Thompson SG NY Points 10.2 +1.2 NY gives up +1.2 FP in Points to SGs
VJ Edgecombe SG ATL Points 14.9 +1.2 ATL gives up +1.2 FP in Points to SGs
Paul George SF ATL Rebounds 5.1 +1.2 ATL gives up +1.2 FP in Rebounds to SFs
Jarace Walker SF WAS Rebounds 4.5 +1.2 WAS gives up +1.2 FP in Rebounds to SFs

Prop Recommendations

Our projections vs FanDuel book lines. Sorted by largest edge where our model disagrees with the market.

Player vs Stat Avg Proj Line Edge% Call Trend
Paul Reed NY PTS 6.3 3.6 12.5 -71.1 UNDER
Paul Reed NY REB 4.2 3.2 8.5 -62.1 UNDER
Evan Mobley BKN BLK 2.0 2.4 1.5 +58.8 OVER
Kyshawn George IND REB 5.4 6.3 4.5 +40.5 OVER
Jakob Poeltl CHI PTS 9.7 10.2 7.5 +36.5 OVER
Dyson Daniels PHI AST 6.2 7.4 5.5 +33.6 OVER
Immanuel Quickley CHI AST 6.1 7.2 5.5 +30.7 OVER
Jarace Walker WAS PTS 10.5 11.8 16.5 -28.6 UNDER
Zaccharie Risacher PHI PTS 10.5 10.9 8.5 +27.9 OVER
Scottie Barnes CHI PTS 19.3 23.5 18.5 +27.1 OVER
Onyeka Okongwu PHI PTS 16.2 17.6 14.5 +21.4 OVER
Sam Merrill BKN PTS 13.6 13.7 11.5 +19.0 OVER
Donovan Mitchell BKN STL 1.5 1.8 1.5 +18.9 OVER
Amen Thompson CHA PTS 17.6 18.1 15.5 +16.6 OVER
Jay Huff WAS PTS 8.7 10.5 12.5 -16.3 UNDER

FanDuel Line Player Average

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